Numbers

This post has nothing to with the CBS hit show, but if you are a regular viewer you would understand that everything in life can be explained using numbers.

Forget for a moment the importance of having specialists at the top of the order and the objective of sending in a night-watchman. Before the start of the second innings, Pathan was averaging 28.75 with the bat in the series while Anil Kumble was averaging 36.67 to his credit. The series averages of Sehwag and Sachin currently stand at 23.75 and 16.3 respectively. Now would you blame the team management for sending in Irfan and Kumble at No.s 2 and 3?

India needs a further 295 runs in 90 overs with 9 wickets in hand. No one has ever scored that many in the fourth innings to win a test in India (India did however make 347 to tie against Australia in the '86 chennai Test). But what are records for if they can't be broken. The Indian teams of the past would have played out for a safe draw.. But the current Indian side has done enough in the past few months to suggest that they aren't the sort who would back away from having a go at an improbable victory. They would look to preserve wickets in the first couple of sessions, score at about 2ish an over and have a go at it in the final session. Ideally if the target comes down to 150-175 in 30 overs with about 6-7 wickets in hand, India would be in with a real chance. Especially if you have someone like Sehwag (hope his back doesn't affect his batting) and Dhoni batting at 7 and 8.

With due respect, inspite of the fifth day pitch, Monty and Udal aren't really in the same league as Kumble and Bhajji. England would be hoping that the pair of them would stand up and deliver, but I don't really think the Indian batsmen would consider the English spin attack as a real threat. The real threat would be from Hoggard, Flintoff and Anderson. Of the 90 overs, given the bowling conditions, I would expect the seamers to bowl about 50 of them. So even if only 100 runs are scored off the seamers, the Indian batsmen are well-equipped to score at about 5 an over off the spinners.

I understand that history tells that an English victory is the likely result, with a draw being the second favourite. But if you stick to just the numbers, India should be the favourites to win tomorrow.

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Blogger Nagu 10:17 AM

yeah english seamers only will do the bulk of bowling tomorrow also as correctly pointed out by u Monty and udal doesnot have enough variation to trouble our batting.If india dont lose many wickets in first session then England will have problems to save this match.    



Blogger Libero 4:01 PM

Sachin looked good int he one-dayers in Pakistan as well as in Nagpur, hopefully he could manage to get runs if he's told to be agressive.

If India manage to turn the final session into a run chase I would favour India to win. But if this looked likely would England pepper the batsmen with bouncers and balls down the leg-side?    



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